Seriously — and I’m talking to all fantasy footballers here — what’s wrong with us?

It makes absolutely zero sense to devote inordinate amounts of time to fantasy football. Yes, the typical fantasy football season is a helluva ride, I’m the first to admit that. The draft is always a shitload of fun (we are renting out a big hotel conference room in Kansas City for ours this year). The game also allows you to constantly be invested in each and every NFL game, something that would otherwise be impossible. Most of all, when you win a championship in a family-and-friends league, the bragging rights are second to none.

When you take a closer look at the game, however, we are damned fools for getting so caught up.

Think about it — you can have a 72′ Dolphins-esque team, and still get knocked out of the playoffs because Billy Volek miracles a gargantuan effort out of his arse. My old man had Drew Brees, L.T., Steve Smith and Torry Holt on his team last year and got smoked in the playoffs. Maurice Jones-Drew single-handedly knocked me out of the playoffs with a statistical output I wouldn’t expect from Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. A few years back, the aforesaid Volek scored 33 points for me one playoff week, only to give me negative points the next week.

Fantasy football is widely unpredictable, but when you get the right combination of skill and luck, the magic carpet ride that follows is amazing. That’s why we play the game, and play it hard.

Staying on the carpet ride and seeing it through to its end is damn near impossible, though. Notice I said damn near, meaning that a ride of that sort is more improbable than impossible. Here’s a list of things you can do to increase your odds of winning that coveted fantasy football ’ship.

• Draft Peyton Manning. He never gets hurt, and he’s been involved in two of the last three Dirty Dozen (our league) championship runs. Many of you will be able to draft him in the first round. I know it sounds like a no-brainer, but he was passed up in favor of other inferior players in last year’s draft.

For example, just look at the first round of our 2006 draft:

In retrospect, picks six-nine are especially embarrassing. Do not make the same mistake and pass up Manning for Frank Gore, Joseph Addai or Willie Parker this year. Eventually, that mistake would be your worst since you woke up next to that sea donkey back in college. If you have to pick a running back not named Alexander, Jackson, Johnson or Tomlinson instead of Manning, go with Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is somewhat injury prone, but he is much more proven than the other running backs who will be available in the mid-to-late first round.

• Don’t become too intoxicated by rookies and completely unproven players with big-time upside. Last year I became completely obsessed with TE Vernon Davis and burned a seventh-round pick on him. I could have picked my second WR there (Chad Johnson was my No. 1 WR). Luckily, I snagged Marques Colston off of waivers, because I could have been screwed. More proven WRs — like Deion Branch, Lee Evans and Reggie Brown — were still on the board. So were proven TEs Kellen Winslow and L.J. Smith. If Davis doesn’t get injured, who knows, maybe I’m not writing this. Still, I think he would have probably been around a round or two later if I had of grown a set and waited it out. I just had to have him, so I reached. Don’t do that, especially early. Basically — play it safe early, and gamble late. Don’t reach before the eight or ninth round, even if it means making a less sexy pick. An early pick you gamble on that goes awry can cost you dearly.
• Pick for value. Sometimes this means avoiding hot players (like Andre Johnson, Gore and Roy Williams this year) and drafting guys who have underperformed. Two years ago, I had both Johnson and Williams on my team. I burned a third- and sixth-round pick, respectively, on them, and they both flopped. I watched both of them play a bunch, so I knew it wasn’t there fault. I also knew that new coaches (Texans head coach Gary Kubiak and Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz) would help their games flourish. Still, I refused to pick them because I didn’t want to get burned again. Ironically enough, I ended up getting burned because I didn’t pick them again. This year I could see Braylon Edwards, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, Matt Jones, Ronnie Brown, Tatum Bell and Vernon Davis all putting up big numbers after somewhat-disappointing 2006 campaigns. Sometimes it just takes some time for potential to translate into production in the NFL, especially for receivers. It’s better to reap the benefits of players such as these a year late than never. The thinking here is similar to the sell-high/buy-low trade theory.

Those are a few great tips that will keep you from making draft-day mistakes, especially in the early round. Other than drafting smart, there isn’t much you can do besides mining the waiver wire and making quality starts. Well, I guess you can always pray to the fantasy football Gods. Personally, I’ve found those bastards to be pretty cold-hearted, but it could work for you. That is if you don’t run into an unexpected MoJo or Volek buzzsaw in the playoffs.